Q29 of 45 Page 1

Assume that the chances of a patient having a heart attack is 40%. Assuming that a meditation and yoga course reduces the risk of heart attack by 30% and prescription of certain drug reduces its chance by 25%. At a time a patient can choose any one of the two options with equal probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two options, the patient selected at random suffers a heart attack. Find the probability that the patient followed a course of meditation and yoga. Interpret the result and state which of the above stated methods is more beneficial for the patient.

Let events E1, E2 be the following:

E1: event that person followed the course of yoga & meditation


E2: event that the person adopted the drug prescription


Given that: meditation and yoga and drug has equal probabilities



Now, Let E be the event that ‘a person has a heart attack’.


It is given that Normal risk of heart attack is 40%


⇒ P(E) = 0.40


P(E|E1) is the probability of having heart attack if he followed a course of meditation and yoga


Meditation reduce the risk by 30%, so there is a risk of 70%


i.e. 0.70


So,




P(E|E2) is the probability of having heart attack if he adopted the drug prescription


The drug prescription reduce the risk by 25%, so there is a risk of 75% i.e. 0.75


So,




Now, we have to find the probability that person followed the course of meditation and yoga, if a person selected has a heart attack


We use Bayes’ theorem to find the probability of occurrence of an event A when event B has already occurred.


∴


P(E1|E) is the probability that the patient suffering a heart attack followed a course of meditation and yoga







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